Tuesday, July 26, 2011

Being Unfriendly - India & Iran


Why Iran is strategically important for India?


·                  Iran has huge deposits of oil & natural gas and Iran is located in close proximity to India which means Iran’s oil & gas supplies (even in the absence of IPI pipeline) have much less transportation costs.
·                  Iran has supported India’s position on Kashmir in the past. It shares borders with both Pakistan & Afghanistan and exerts influence in the region. It can help India in pressuring Pakistan from the western side of its border. It is a major player in bringing stabilization of Afghanistan and in solving the problem of terrorism/extremism in the region.
·                  Iranian society, though theocratic democracy, is still more progressive and moderate than other Islamic countries of the region. It has made significant progress in scientific and technological development (e.g. space science, missile development and a bit notoriously- in nuclear technology). India being a secular country, ties with Iran as civilizational and traditional friend are natural.
·                  Iran is strategically important for India because it seeks India’s support at international levels. It takes positive view of India’s development and supports India’s growing status.  India- Iranian relations are free from any major constraints. Iran also has huge influence in West Asia as a Shia Islamic state.
Hence I believe that it is not in India’s interest to drop Iran from its friends list. India needs to engage Iran and may even propose to become a negotiator/mediator in talks between US & Iran. India should play a role in bringing Iran into international mainstream and preventing its isolation (like N.Korea or Cuba). The nuclear deal between US & India is through. Though there are many other agendas like Security Council reforms, membership of nuclear trade regimes like NSG, FMCT, Australia Group & Wassenar Arrangement (for pushing all of these India needs US support), India must find out ways to have relations with Iran going without crossing red lines drawn by US e.g. floating a new company to purchase oil & gas solely from Iran in Indian rupees or Iranian currency to bypass US sanctions. India should also realize that Iran’s emergence as nuclear power does not hurt India’s interests to a great level as Iranian nuclear program is not targeted against India. Iran’s nuclear power status may actually bring balance of power in West Asia which is dominated by Israel currently. US & Israel are worried about their influence declining in West Asia in the event of emergence of a nuclear Iran. It is ironical & surprising that on the question of Iran acquiring nuclear weapons, both Saudi Arabia & Israel are on the same side (along with & because of US) though traditionally they are bitter enemies. It is unlikely that US will invade Iran as it is suffering from several domestic economic problems. Hence India has option of maintaining a friendly posture towards Iran while remaining in good books of US.  US has always done what is in its best national interests. India does not have as much leverage as US to take hard decisions (which hurt its economic and geo-political progress), but still national interest requires India to do a tough balancing act by keeping US, Israel, Saudi Arabia along with Iran among its close friends. 

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